Revised modelling from the Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation predicts that Maine will reach it’s peak healthcare resource use due to coronavirus on April 15th.
It projects that, on that date, 277 hospital beds will be needed out of 1,061 available statewide.
The number of Mainers who have been hospitalized at some point with coronavirus was 92 as of Monday, according to Maine’s CDC.
Each figure provided by the model comes with an “uncertainty interval”, similar to a margin of error, which projects worst and best case scenarios based on the data.
The model, which has informed decision-making by the Trump administration in recent weeks as they respond to the coronavirus pandemic, assumes social distancing is already being practiced and will remain in place through May. It’s latest projections show an estimated 81,766 deaths nationwide due to COVID-19 by August 4th.
IMHE’s model projects peak ICU use in Maine at 56 out of 64 available ICU beds statewide on April 15th, falling under the state’s capacity. But that demand could also be as high as 136 beds or as low as 21. On Monday, the Maine CDC said the number of available ICU beds was actually 300.
The model predicts 115 deaths statewide in Maine by August 4th, with social distancing remaining in place through May. That number also comes with an uncertainty range of 58 at the least to 216 at the most.
Maine CDC Director Nirav Shah has not speculated on a possible death toll in Maine. Instead, he says they look at a broad range of outcomes and try to prepare for each one.
As of Monday, Maine reported 499 confirmed cases of coronavirus and 10 deaths. 158 people had recovered.
