A new Marist Poll shows Troy Jackson with a small lead of two points (49%-47%) over Republican incumbent Susan Collins in the Maine U.S. Senate race.

Jackson’s lead reflects a survey of likely voters, with his advantage increasing to nine points among registered voters. Jackson had a 4-point lead with registered voters earlier this month.

The Marist Poll also shows Jackson with a nine-point lead (50%-41%) with independent voters, who outnumber Republicans in the state.

Still, the poll shows a majority of likely voters (58%) think Collins will be re-elected.

In a generic congressional ballot question, Maine Democrats have a 5-point edge among likely voters, which more than doubles among registered voters statewide.

Polling expert Nate Silver has taken issue with the Marist Poll tabulation showing a seven-point swing from likely to registered voters in the Colins-Jackson race.

“Democrats aren’t going to underperform by 7 points among likely voters relative to registered voters, especially in a year where D turnout is likely to be fairly high by every available measure,” the FiveThirtyEight founder wrote on X.

Silver also said Jackson’s 9-point lead among registered voters was hard to believe, but added, “but this is two wrongs making a (maybe?) right.”

The new Marist poll released Tuesday that surveyed 1,449 registered voters in Maine.